WHAT A LONG, STRANGE TRIP IT’S BEEN…
When the Federal Reserve embarked on its monetary and fiscal policies to help the economy stabilize and emerge from the Great Recession of 2007-2008, predictions were rampant regarding the longer term consequences of those policies. The most common predictions were that the US economy would enter a period of significant inflation and that the US dollar was likely to weaken – many were suggesting a collapse – in response to short term interest rates at zero and massive quantitative easing. Another popular theory was that government deficits were exploding to the point where they would never recover.
Seven years later we are in a period of extraordinarily low inflation, the US dollar has surged and the annual deficit (inflation adjusted) is back to levels witnessed in the early 90’s and early ‘00’s. The point is, it is virtually impossible to accurately predict (i.e. guess) what the economy or markets will do over a short period of time. This is why we hold such strong conviction in our investment process.
Instead of guessing what’s next or jumping on what worked recently, we continually monitor what is actually happening now. We track the moving averages for 15 separate equity, fixed income and alternative investment classes on a weekly basis. This allows us to regularly and consistently adjust portfolios away from areas that are exhibiting weakness and into areas of relative strength. Is it perfect? Of course not, but it has a proven track record of getting major moves right and serving to protect wealth in periods of sustained weakness. If you are not familiar with the specifics around our process, please ask. We are happy to explain in detail how the process works and how our current models are positioned.
Vault
We have launched a new, complimentary service to clients that we call Vault. Think of it as an electronic safety deposit box that can store all of your important documents, contacts and accounts. The data is securely encrypted and stored in the Cloud. We established this service to ensure that we are prepared to assist your family or your other advisors in a time of need. The documents and data in Vault are available 24/7 by both you and our team.
As we have rolled out this concept to clients, there has been overwhelming acceptance of the concept. Unfortunately, while clients love the idea they have been slow to actually set up their Vault and begin the process of uploading documents. To that end, we have hired Mallory Davis (Brett’s daughter who just graduated college) to help clients utilize this service in the manner that makes sense for them. Don’t be surprised to hear from Mallory to see how she can help you.
Research and Articles
We are committed to getting relevant information out to you more frequently. To that end, expect to see more correspondence from us in the way of timely research, economic commentary or financial planning articles. Below you will find a few articles of interest.
As always if there is anything we can do to better serve you, please let us know. Thank you for your continued support.
Brett, Steve & Becky
